{"id":2179,"date":"2013-01-31T12:43:04","date_gmt":"2013-01-31T12:43:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icebreakerexecutive.com\/?p=2179"},"modified":"2013-01-31T12:43:04","modified_gmt":"2013-01-31T12:43:04","slug":"excellent-analysis-from-the-erc-recovery-comparison-from-the-last-4-uks-previous-recessions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/winningthinking.co.uk\/?p=2179","title":{"rendered":"Excellent analysis from the ERC &#8211; recovery comparison from the last 4 UK&#8217;s previous recessions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"\" src=\"\/\/www.icebreakerexecutive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/weekly_digest.gif\" width=\"700\" height=\"125\" \/><\/div>\n<div><i>Email not loading correctly? \u00a0View it in your browser by clicking <a href=\"https:\/\/ymlp.com\/zUElZW\">here<\/a>.<\/i><\/div>\n<div>\n<div><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><i>We apologise that due to a technical fault, the Weekly Digest is a day late. \u00a0<\/i><\/div>\n<div><i>We will hopefully be back to Wednesday afternoons from next week!<\/i><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div><strong>CHART OF THE WEEK<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><strong>UK Recessions<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><strong>Summary:<\/strong>\u00a0The disappointing GDP figures released on Friday mean we now have data for a full five years since the peak before the recession in 2008. The fact that we are still a long way off returning to pre-recession levels of output does not compare kindly to any similar period of time in at least the past one hundred years.<\/div>\n<div>\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ercouncil.org\/chart-of-the-week\/week-5-2013-uk-recessions.html\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"\" src=\"\/\/www.icebreakerexecutive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/ercchart0513.gif\" width=\"555\" height=\"341\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div><strong>What does the chart show?<\/strong>\u00a0This chart is an extension of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ercouncil.org\/chart-of-the-week\/week-17-2012-uk-recessions.html\">one we produced last year<\/a>, and is inspired by the comparison charts made famous by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.niesr.ac.uk\/\">the NIESR<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It shows quarterly GDP over four different time periods. All have been re-based so that the peak before each recession is equal to 100. For the blue line, the first point is Q2 1920, for the red line it is Q1 1930, for the green line it is Q4 1979, and for the orange line, Q1 2008. Note that the ONS records only go back to the 1940s, so for the 1930s we have used estimates of the GDP from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.niesr.ac.uk\/pdf\/dp348.pdf\">an NIESR report<\/a>.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong>Why is the chart interesting?<\/strong>\u00a0 While this comparison does not tell the entire story of the difficult economic times we find ourselves in (unemployment has not been as much of an issue as in previous recessions, for example), it is not good news that this is by far the longest recovery period post-recession in the UK since at least the beginning of the twentieth century (it may well be longer, but records from before then are too unreliable to be sure). To make things worse, with no significant growth obviously forthcoming, it could be another few years before we return to the peak of Q1 2008.<\/div>\n<div><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/div>\n<div><i>The ERC Chart of the Week is updated every Wednesday.<\/i><\/div>\n<div><i>\u00a0<\/i><\/div>\n<div><i><a href=\"https:\/\/ymlp.com\/yUElZW\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/ymlp.com\/share_big.gif\" width=\"146\" height=\"24\" \/><\/a><\/i><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div align=\"center\"><i><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ymlp.com\/forward.php?id=UElZW\">Forward this email to a friend<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/i><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><i>Want to comment? Head to<\/i><\/div>\n<div><i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/groups?home=&amp;gid=2803106&amp;trk=anet_ug_hm&amp;goback=%2Eanh_2803106%2Eana_2803106_1272371060496_3_1%2Eana_2803106_1272371060497_3_1%2Eanh_2803106\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/img.ymlp.com\/t8jg_linkedin.png\" width=\"160\" height=\"33\" \/><\/a><\/i><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<hr width=\"95%\" \/>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div align=\"center\">Economic Research Council, 55 Tufton Street, London SW1P 3QL<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\">Telephone : 020 7340 6016<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EconResCouncil\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"\/\/www.icebreakerexecutive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/twitter.gif\" width=\"120\" height=\"60\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Economic-Research-Council\/317245406897\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"\/\/www.icebreakerexecutive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/facebook.gif\" width=\"120\" height=\"40\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/groups?mostPopular=&amp;gid=2803106\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"\/\/www.icebreakerexecutive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/linkedin.gif\" width=\"120\" height=\"40\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yourmailinglistprovider.com\">Powered by YMLP.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Email not loading correctly? \u00a0View it in your browser by  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Excellent analysis from the ERC - recovery comparison from the last 4 UK&#039;s previous recessions - www.winningthinking.co.uk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/winningthinking.co.uk\/?p=2179\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Excellent analysis from the ERC - recovery comparison from the last 4 UK&#039;s previous recessions - www.winningthinking.co.uk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Email not loading correctly? \u00a0View it in your browser by [...]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/winningthinking.co.uk\/?p=2179\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"www.winningthinking.co.uk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-01-31T12:43:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ymlp.com\/share_big.gif\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ionostest\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ionostest\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/winningthinking.co.uk\\\/?p=2179#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/winningthinking.co.uk\\\/?p=2179\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ionostest\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/winningthinking.co.uk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/018fe961d8c94a6bd8f767d89aff5614\"},\"headline\":\"Excellent analysis from the ERC &#8211; 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