{"id":13885,"date":"2018-09-07T14:59:37","date_gmt":"2018-09-07T14:59:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icebreakerexecutive.com\/?p=13885"},"modified":"2018-09-07T14:59:37","modified_gmt":"2018-09-07T14:59:37","slug":"why-is-ind-rev4-so-different-and-why-should-we-be-concerned","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/winningthinking.co.uk\/?p=13885","title":{"rendered":"Why is Ind. Rev4 so different and why should we be concerned?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><em>Definition of reckless: &#8220;heedless of danger or the consequences of one&#8217;s actions; rash or impetuous.&#8221;<\/em><\/h3>\n<h3>Exec Summary:<\/h3>\n<p>This 2 minute video summarises the emerging digital driven trends at a macro level &#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe class=\"center\" src=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/api\/edit\/embed?embed=%257B%2522type%2522%253A%2522video%2522%252C%2522title%2522%253A%257B%2522localized%2522%253A%257B%2522en_US%2522%253A%2522Why%2520is%2520developing%2520our%2520thinking%2520the%2520means%2520of%2520coping%2520with%2520the%2520%2523tech%2520challenges%253F%2522%257D%257D%252C%2522description%2522%253A%257B%2522localized%2522%253A%257B%2522en_US%2522%253A%2522This%2520is%2520%255C%2522Why%2520is%2520developing%2520our%2520thinking%2520the%2520means%2520of%2520coping%2520with%2520the%2520%2523tech%2520challenges%253F%255C%2522%2520by%2520WinningThinking.uk%2520on%2520Vimeo%252C%2520the%2520home%2520for%2520high%2520quality%2520videos%25E2%2580%25A6%2522%257D%257D%252C%2522author%2522%253A%257B%2522name%2522%253A%2522WinningThinking.uk%2522%257D%252C%2522provider%2522%253A%257B%2522name%2522%253A%2522Vimeo%2522%252C%2522display%2522%253A%2522Vimeo%2522%252C%2522url%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fvimeo.com%252F%2522%257D%252C%2522request%2522%253A%257B%2522originalUrl%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fvimeo.com%252F270423986%2522%252C%2522finalUrl%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fvimeo.com%252F270423986%2522%257D%252C%2522images%2522%253A%255B%257B%2522url%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fi.vimeocdn.com%252Fvideo%252F701711867_295x166.jpg%2522%252C%2522width%2522%253A295%252C%2522height%2522%253A166%257D%252C%257B%2522url%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fi.vimeocdn.com%252Ffilter%252Foverlay%253Fsrc0%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fi.vimeocdn.com%25252Fvideo%25252F701711867_1280x960.jpg%2526src1%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Ff.vimeocdn.com%25252Fimages_v6%25252Fshare%25252Fplay_icon_overlay.png%2522%252C%2522width%2522%253A1280%252C%2522height%2522%253A960%257D%255D%252C%2522data%2522%253A%257B%2522com.linkedin.treasury.Video%2522%253A%257B%2522html%2522%253A%2522%253Ciframe%2520scrolling%253D%255C%2522no%255C%2522%2520allowfullscreen%2520src%253D%255C%2522%252F%252Fmedia.licdn.com%252Fembeds%252Fmedia.html%253Fsrc%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fplayer.vimeo.com%25252Fvideo%25252F270423986%25253Fapp_id%25253D122963%2526amp%253Burl%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fvimeo.com%25252F270423986%2526amp%253Btype%253Dtext%25252Fhtml%2526amp%253Bschema%253Dvimeo%255C%2522%2520width%253D%255C%2522480%255C%2522%2520frameborder%253D%255C%25220%255C%2522%2520class%253D%255C%2522embedly-embed%255C%2522%2520height%253D%255C%2522360%255C%2522%253E%253C%252Fiframe%253E%2522%252C%2522width%2522%253A480%252C%2522height%2522%253A360%257D%257D%257D&amp;signature=AaaRk5lGVwvJj9GlFuEl0n9WN_Nw\" width=\"744\" height=\"480\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-li-src=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/api\/edit\/embed?embed=%257B%2522type%2522%253A%2522video%2522%252C%2522title%2522%253A%257B%2522localized%2522%253A%257B%2522en_US%2522%253A%2522Why%2520is%2520developing%2520our%2520thinking%2520the%2520means%2520of%2520coping%2520with%2520the%2520%2523tech%2520challenges%253F%2522%257D%257D%252C%2522description%2522%253A%257B%2522localized%2522%253A%257B%2522en_US%2522%253A%2522This%2520is%2520%255C%2522Why%2520is%2520developing%2520our%2520thinking%2520the%2520means%2520of%2520coping%2520with%2520the%2520%2523tech%2520challenges%253F%255C%2522%2520by%2520WinningThinking.uk%2520on%2520Vimeo%252C%2520the%2520home%2520for%2520high%2520quality%2520videos%25E2%2580%25A6%2522%257D%257D%252C%2522author%2522%253A%257B%2522name%2522%253A%2522WinningThinking.uk%2522%257D%252C%2522provider%2522%253A%257B%2522name%2522%253A%2522Vimeo%2522%252C%2522display%2522%253A%2522Vimeo%2522%252C%2522url%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fvimeo.com%252F%2522%257D%252C%2522request%2522%253A%257B%2522originalUrl%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fvimeo.com%252F270423986%2522%252C%2522finalUrl%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fvimeo.com%252F270423986%2522%257D%252C%2522images%2522%253A%255B%257B%2522url%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fi.vimeocdn.com%252Fvideo%252F701711867_295x166.jpg%2522%252C%2522width%2522%253A295%252C%2522height%2522%253A166%257D%252C%257B%2522url%2522%253A%2522https%253A%252F%252Fi.vimeocdn.com%252Ffilter%252Foverlay%253Fsrc0%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fi.vimeocdn.com%25252Fvideo%25252F701711867_1280x960.jpg%2526src1%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Ff.vimeocdn.com%25252Fimages_v6%25252Fshare%25252Fplay_icon_overlay.png%2522%252C%2522width%2522%253A1280%252C%2522height%2522%253A960%257D%255D%252C%2522data%2522%253A%257B%2522com.linkedin.treasury.Video%2522%253A%257B%2522html%2522%253A%2522%253Ciframe%2520scrolling%253D%255C%2522no%255C%2522%2520allowfullscreen%2520src%253D%255C%2522%252F%252Fmedia.licdn.com%252Fembeds%252Fmedia.html%253Fsrc%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fplayer.vimeo.com%25252Fvideo%25252F270423986%25253Fapp_id%25253D122963%2526amp%253Burl%253Dhttps%25253A%25252F%25252Fvimeo.com%25252F270423986%2526amp%253Btype%253Dtext%25252Fhtml%2526amp%253Bschema%253Dvimeo%255C%2522%2520width%253D%255C%2522480%255C%2522%2520frameborder%253D%255C%25220%255C%2522%2520class%253D%255C%2522embedly-embed%255C%2522%2520height%253D%255C%2522360%255C%2522%253E%253C%252Fiframe%253E%2522%252C%2522width%2522%253A480%252C%2522height%2522%253A360%257D%257D%257D&amp;signature=AaaRk5lGVwvJj9GlFuEl0n9WN_Nw\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h3>What is the difference between these 2 bikes?<\/h3>\n<p>The Mobike is Chinese and\u00a0<strong><u>designed<\/u><\/strong>\u00a0for a digital convergent business model: convenience, availability, high service, no maintenance, no sales people, no customer ownership, no infrastructure, no people in the business process. But lots of software engineers and flooded with cash to grow, for example $15Bn in Didi&#8217;s case vs Uber \u00a30!<\/p>\n<p>The Chinese investors encourage profitless growth. Mobikes are all over the UK streets.<\/p>\n<p>The penny farthing was based around the latest most desirable technology of 1800, supported by a\u00a0<strong><u>product centrist<\/u><\/strong>\u00a0infrastructure. This was designed to\u00a0<strong>sell at a profit<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3>What\u2019s different in industrial revolution 4 in 2018 vs the industrial revolution of 1800?<\/h3>\n<h3>The numbers affected:<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0In 1811 the Luddites only made up only 3% of the population\u2019s roles were at risk of change. Roles reduced in number by 230,000 over 30 years upto 1860.<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0Increased productivity of the lower skilled workers eventually resulted in more equal income distribution<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Today those roles at risk are the middle class.\u00a0<strong>BUT<\/strong>\u00a0rather than 3% of the population the middle class at risk make up 60-80% of working population<\/p>\n<h3>The technology<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0In 1811 the machines were inflexible and work to operate them standardised: so workers were free to move between operations.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Today these machines are self-learning and human operators must be far more skilled and operators must re educate themselves.<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0Hypothetical risks<\/p>\n<p>\u00a7\u00a0AI operators won\u2019t be able to retrain fast enough to keep up &amp; Peoples decision making won\u2019t be able to evaluate the outputs nor cope with the speed<\/p>\n<h3>Tasks replaced<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Simpler processes AI can replace altogether: handling financial applications in Trelleborg<\/p>\n<p>people do do tasks such as routing vehicles which we are totally technically unequipped to do effectively. Human decision making is very biased and often flawed.<\/p>\n<h3>Tasks reduced<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Complex processes \u2013 medical scanning xrays for abnormalities<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0End \u2013 end analysis &#8211; creative clothing design Myntra \u2013 production, shorten lead time<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Patent drafting and legal work<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Frey and Osbourne found that 47% of US occupations are at risk of being automated within 10-20 years. Automating of higher skills jobs is likely to be lower. 32% of jobs have 50-70% chance of being automated<\/p>\n<h3>Skills in demand<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The increased productivity of the tech elite will be in high demand and well paid, creating an elite of upper middle class that will benefit from the digital societal change.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Major Social class impact will be at clerical, sales and middle management, as seen with the current retail, banking and other manufacturing job losses.<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a060-70% of households across 25 advanced economies earned the same of less in 2014 vs 2005.<\/p>\n<h3>Lifelong learning<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Lifelong learning will be critical to stay ahead<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0although its thought that many won\u2019t be able to retrain their technical skills fast enough to keep up with the changes<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0we will also need to develop a deeper knowledge of our flaws. As humans these will be exposed by AI.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.winningthinking.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">www.winningthinking.uk<\/a>\u00a0bridges this gap and enables us to better cope and improve our agility, human processing and decision making.<\/p>\n<h3>Overall risk for societal disruption<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0During the first industrial revolution only 3% of roles in England were affected.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Now its 60% in the USA and over 80% or roles at risk of being affected in some EU countries<\/p>\n<h3>Business valuation and growth<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The top4 companies in 1961 employed 1.4m people, now the top 4: Apple Exxon, Microsoft and Google employ only 0.3m people: 70% less people<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0These companies are driving digitisation and are rolling out these business models<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The largest employer in the UK is retail \u2013 Walmart employed 2.2 m vs amazon employing only 0.6m people, again c70% less people<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s roughly a quarter of people employed in these digital vs the traditional business models they replace<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0Their digital retail business models are growing and given they are introducing automated high street stores a further decline below 70% less roles is possible<\/p>\n<h3>Peoples capability vs AI now<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Robots can already demonstrate superior skills such as facial recognition, \u201cthere is no domain that is safe from automation\u201d (James Hughes)<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Alpha go played a GO move than no human had ever seen beating the world champion. This was the first time in 2010 that AI was seen as creative<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Machines cognition and recognition &#8211; can reliably learn, access and digest vast quantities of data<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0AI decision making will be \u201cbetter\u201d than humans \u2013 without bias, if they can be programmed without bias. Ai has been proven very effective tool to win and has been shown to deploy some very aggressive tactics if left the machine learning is unchecked.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The trend is to delicate tasks \u2013 creating music and precision surgery and at Ocado picking fruit in warehouses. Ocado define themselves as a technology business NOT a grocer.<\/p>\n<h3>Speed of change<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Technology development will continue to accelerate with a wide impact on society<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0If 60-80% of people lost their jobs repercussions for society would be huge<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0A basic living wage needs considering<\/p>\n<p>o\u00a0\u00a0Profits will fall because there will be less profit as these digital models will, contrary to Porters advice!.. primarily compete on price, service and product. This was Porters strategy defining how to go bust!<\/p>\n<p>\u00a7\u00a0Didi et all are profitless fast growth models with vast scale that are nearly impossible to compete with<\/p>\n<p>\u00a7\u00a0Less corporation tax collection \u2013 so will public sectors retain control, and will there be funding to pick up the pieces<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Why if we are not willing to stop AI would be willing to give away vast profits to look after the poor? Can the public sector cope with their burdens now?<\/p>\n<h3>Sentient AI<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Sentinent AI will lead to very few competing company\u2019s, the demise of the traditional product centrist companies, and the rise of the giants employing only 25% of the number of people employed in traditional businessses.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0By creating creative AI \u2013 leaps in innovation and productivity will be for a very few of the digital elite<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0This would create major labour destabilisation as well as political power shifts by those countries that dominate its development.<\/p>\n<h3>The people aspects<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Social media, progress to machine \u2013 machine communication, machines increasingly making decisions, more volatility, increased uncertainty, faster swings is not a situation that humans can cope with nor can plan for.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Polarisation of views Brexit and Trump and denial \u201cwe don\u2019t know what the impact will be\u201d, baseless statements that substantiate inactivity \u201cit will be OK\u201d are all signs people can&#8217;t cope.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The increasing disruption to our daily lives via social media is reducing our human ability to plan, or get to grips with the big picture<\/p>\n<h3>What are humans?<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>I know a CEO of a very well known AI business his mantra is &#8220;people are machines&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Machine Def: &#8220;an apparatus using mechanical power and having several parts, each with a definite function and together performing a particular task.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>If we are machines AI makes complete sense, if not its a flawed strategic mantra worth rethinking because a flawed strategy will inevitably lead to a flawed outcome?<\/p>\n<h3>The emerging convergent business models<\/h3>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The move for example in the auto industry from vehicle centric transport to convergent mobility models, that combine low cost of ownership, convenience, will dominate the product development and the demand, so probably render the traditional car makers and product centric solutions and technology defunct and like the Mobike be led by the digital giants.<\/p>\n<h3>Profitless Growth<\/h3>\n<p>Convergent models are often profitless growth models: even simple models such as ASOS operating in a relatively noncompetitive market right now is only making 4% net margin, and maybe less due to their reverse logistics that they have just launched.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Convergent models will also drive value and profits out of the downstream supply chain, and commoditise the product solutions, costs and service.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b7\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The increased polarisation of wealth and reducing overall profits will therefore likely reduce the size of markets and with reducing profits reduce profits to distribute.<\/p>\n<h3>Can we get a grip of this &#8211; is digital rational?<\/h3>\n<p>AI plays to all of the worst fear based human traits \u2013 fear that overrides rational thinking and with increasing speed, more panic, more greed and the big 4 fuelling the band wagon, its hard to see except by developing our rational thinking what we can do to contain digitisation and or avoid an increasingly rapid race to the bottom.<\/p>\n<p>So there is no comparison in terms of the threat of IR1 Vs IR4. IR1 only affected 3% of the total workforce whereas IR4 threatens maybe upto 75% of the workforce. (based upon digital business model vs the traditional forms of employment)<\/p>\n<h3>The meaning that comes from work<\/h3>\n<p>As Elon Musk said: &#8220;The toughest challenge may not be funding the universal income gap, it is probably the loss of meaning, by not working &#8221;<\/p>\n<h3>What can you do?<\/h3>\n<p>That is why the www.winningthinking.uk solution is rather timely, but like anything in your blind spot you wont get it until you experience it.<\/p>\n<p>My advice is to join us at one of our www.winningthinking.uk seminars. It has been shown to offer the best chance of supporting your organisations decision making and increase your productivity by stopping most of (typically 50-70% can be stopped) what you are currently doing and using that time more productively to reset the strategy, increase speed, refocus on what matters, re-engage your people and typically increase profit by double digits.<\/p>\n<div class=\"slate-resizable-image-embed slate-image-embed__resize-full-width\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.licdn.com\/dms\/image\/C4D12AQHZtCGMDlJgsQ\/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232\/0?e=1541635200&amp;v=beta&amp;t=JS1YIyJRQsnYr0tvipN7HisC-9ZORFIMVaZXvQYZBlU\" data-media-urn=\"\" data-li-src=\"https:\/\/media.licdn.com\/dms\/image\/C4D12AQHZtCGMDlJgsQ\/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232\/0?e=1541635200&amp;v=beta&amp;t=JS1YIyJRQsnYr0tvipN7HisC-9ZORFIMVaZXvQYZBlU\" \/><\/div>\n<p>enjoy Tom<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Definition of reckless: &#8220;heedless of danger or the consequences of  [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","hentry","category-artificial-inteligence","category-winningthinking-though-leadership","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why is Ind. 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